Most Neglected Factors in NFL Betting
Every year statistics witness an exponential rise in the public’s interest regarding the National Football League, especially during the weeks approaching the main event – The Super Bowl.
As excitement starts to build up, people get more and more tempted into placing a couple of bets for fun, just to see how well their favorites will fare. Before you even know it, the sportsbooks have made billions of dollars on one-time bettors such as these.
The amount of money alone is enough for anyone to realize the expansion of the sports betting industry, but other segments also point towards this trend.
Namely, since the advance of technology and the Internet, this industry started occupying the virtual space just as much as it had with their land-based sportsbooks. Nowadays, this increasing number of online sports betting platforms is solid proof that the NFL is definitely a major target for sports bettors worldwide.
Picking their favorite team, noting the performance rate of individual quarterbacks and keeping track of game-to-game statistics often pulls bettors away from their goal. While focusing on these factors is an important asset in the bet-making process, there are numerous other considerations whose contribution is just as valuable. Following is a detailed account on some of the most neglected yet useful factors that can seriously improve your NFL betting experience.
While it might seem like it is a worthless piece of information, the schedule for the season can tell you quite a lot about a team’s potential to win or lose a particular game. For one, you are able to see which teams have been their opponents so far, as well as the final results of those games. Careful analysis can provide you with valuable insight regarding the types of teams they can beat and the ones they can’t, as well as their power moves and weaknesses.
If you still think that the teams’ schedules are not vital information, consider the fact that you could create a complete profile of their wins and defeats. This allows you to dig beneath the surface of the final score and understand how they played the game. When playing against a favorite, a tight score with little difference is often better than winning an underdog by 10 points or over.
Other information provided solely by going through the schedule is the team’s difference in performance in home and away games. This allows you to take into account jet lag, time zone changes, and even weather conditions.
Unlike the quarterbacks and the receivers who are known to receive their fair share of praise, kickers are rarely considered important for the overall score. A good kicker can set the mood from the first second and guarantee motivation that will last until the final result is in their team’s favor. Still, their contribution has been largely neglected by both amateur bettors and experienced professionals.
Even the best of them are known to have a hard time making touchdowns, but they are often seen getting into the red zone. This is a good way to recognize a good kicker and to determine exactly precisely how his abilities affect the game progress.
Now that we are on the roll, we might as well mention anyone related to the team members that fall into the ‘neglected’ category. Coaches and coordinators are key figures, especially in football where tactics, moves and instant reactions make all the difference. These people have not received due attention from NFL bettors, even though a closer look at their relations with team players can be quite revealing for the trained eye.
Apart from their permanent connection with the team, each coach has their own set of personal characteristics which could also serve you well at the sportsbooks. It is important to know the coaches assigned to the NFL teams, as well as their major moves and tactics.
It often helps to see if they had any previous personal ties with colleagues or players. This provides advantage over less curious bettors, and with the right choice of sportsbook and betting lines, you are bound to hit a win based solely on your analysis.
Negative Passing Plays
Many bettors, especially beginners, are hardly aware of the existence of Negative Passing Plays percentage. It is a number which basically shows you the percentage of all plays that ended as a sack or an interception.
While these are not the same, they are both achieved if the defensive line gets enough chances to pressure the quarterback. This is where any experienced bettor would be able to recognize the advantage of having a QB who cannot get a free pass – the player is bound to get confused, make passing mistakes or even cost his team the entire game.
To make it clear so that any NFL bettor will be able to make use of this less known, yet influential factor, a high NPP percentage means more sacks and more issues for the quarterback. A team that manages to shake this player’s confidence has a clear chance of turning up victorious by the end of the game.
This term is short for the offensive line in football, a group of players often neglected due to the fame and glory of their main star, the quarterback. We don’t want you to get the wrong idea that this player is irrelevant – if that was the case, they would not have got all this attention to themselves. Still, their shine seems of overshadow every object nearby, even if it is the entire offensive line.
When placing a bet on your chosen NFL team, make sure you pay all the necessary attention to this factor. You can analyze it from two separate aspects in order to get as much in-depth info as possible. First off, it is important to view it as a whole, since that is how it functions.
Consider the stats for the entire line, the limits allowed and any behavioral patterns that seem repetitive. Once you get a feel of how they work together, separate the offensive players and examine them individually. Their interrelations, personal issues, injuries or even replacements could tell you a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of a team’s offense. Once you have gone through all the aspects of this rather obvious team segment, you are sure to feel obligated to factor it in your betting predictions.
This neglected factor may seem a bit far from the field to have any crucial influence in the team’s performance during your chosen game. Nonetheless, you would be surprised by the number of back office segments which directly affect your chances of winning or losing your bet.
Before you make your bet, be sure to get some information about the teams owners. Check some information regarding their background, the general treatment with their employees, as well as their concern for providing all the necessary working conditions to achieve maximum results. Often times, an owner who believes that money can buy everything, including the knowledge of how to build a winning team, ends up broke.
Others, however, are living proof that owners can have an extremely positive effect on the team’s season score. This may be one of the least recognized factors that could help improve your NFL bets, so you might even have an edge over some sportsbooks who have not calculated this into their odds and betting lines.
Yards per Attempt
Saving the best for last is always a good idea, and in the case with yards per attempt, it must have been a rather surprising one as well. Most NFL bettors pay attention to other types of stats, more specifically passing yards.
The problem with this type of stat which makes it unreliable is that quarterbacks can achieve it in more than one way. That means that a QB could be struggling in the red zone, but just because he managed to get a lot of passes and run a few extra yards.
The situation with yards per attempt (YPA) is a bit different. These stats are calculated in a precise manner, which is why they are more likely to provide reliable information about a quarterback’s performance rate. All it takes to calculate YPA is to take the number of yards passed and divide it with the number of pass attempts. A solid result would be if the final number is somewhere around 7 and above, meaning that they player had efficiently passed the yards with less attempts.
These are just some of the factors that rarely get a say in the final calculation before it is time to place a bet on the NFL. Some of them may seem a bit far-fetched to actually influence the gameflow, but a more careful analysis is bound to prove things otherwise.
All in all, it is recommendable to take into account practically anything that could influence the outcome in any way. While this should not lead to considering every gloomy cloud on a sunny day or a few bad passes, anything else that seems major in your eyes is bound to help your bets.